Hurricane predictions are rarely good news for the Outer Banks, but this year’s early Atlantic hurricane forecast released by Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science projects a below-average season! The guys over at Surfline shared the release and their expertise in this informative piece.
and William M. Gray/Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU
“The Tropical Meteorology Project at CSUpredicts that the season will see below-average activity, “anticipat(ing) that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th Century.”
While the season may eventually turn out to be below-average, or even less, it is very important to remember that individual storms not seasons bring impacts to the coast. It only takes one storm to choose a path of destruction, or in contrast, to deliver an epic swell — anyone remember Andrew in ’92 or Gonazalo from last year’s slow season?
The initial forecast calls for 7 named storms with 3 becoming hurricanes and 1 reaching major status (slide #2). This would prove even slower than last season’s below-average year that saw 8 named storms, with 2 of 6 reaching major status. In regards to landfall of a major hurricane, the probability of a Category 3-4-5 moving onshore in the Gulf or on the US East Coast is about half (55%) of the long-term average.”
[box type=”bio”] Read the rest of the story and the reasons why this year’s predictions are so low at Surfline.com.[/box]